Matthew Dowd - Success on health reform holds risks for Democrats - washingtonpost.com

Matthew Dowd - Success on health reform holds risks for Democrats - washingtonpost.com: "President Obama needs an exit strategy. I am not referring to Afghanistan or Iraq (though there are quite a few similarities between the situation Obama is in on health-care reform and the political difficulties President George W. Bush faced on Iraq). Congressional Democrats and Obama are headed toward a 'catastrophic success' politically if they pass health-care reform in its current legislative form. And catastrophic success was a term then-President Bush used on Iraq when he acknowledged the great initial victory but didn't take into account the long-term calamity and costs."

I am not seeking to argue the substance of health care and the merits or demerits of the bills, and will leave that to experts in policy and its effects. I am talking about the politics of the legislation and the effect it is likely to have on Obama and Democrats in Congress.

Unlike many other pundits and political experts in both parties, I think that passage of a bill by the Democrats at this point will be politically damaging to both the president and congressional Democrats. Conversely, defeat of the legislation is much more likely to hurt Republicans in Congress.

The latest Post-ABC News poll shows the president's overall approval rating at a new low of 50 percent -- about the rating President Bush had going into the November 2004 election, when Democrats said Bush was ripe for defeat.