Britain plans for 65,000 deaths from swine flu - Times Online

Britain plans for 65,000 deaths from swine flu - Times Online

The NHS should plan for a worst case scenario of up to 65,000 swine flu deaths this year, the Government said today, as the number of people to die after contracting the virus rose to 29.

Health officials confirmed that a further nine people in England had died after contracting the swine flu virus, following the deaths of a six-year-old schoolgirl and a family doctor. There were unconfirmed reports tonight that another young child — a boy from Kent — may be among the latest victims.


The reports came as Sir Liam Donaldson, the Chief Medical Officer, presented the latest NHS plans for coping with the pandemic. The recommendations, based on 30 per cent of the population falling ill, were issued as latest figures showed that about 55,000 people reported flu symptoms last week.

Sir Liam said it was not yet known whether the latest people to die had any underlying health problems.

A total of 26 people have now died in England and three in Scotland, including a tourist with significant underlying medical conditions who died at Raigmore Hospital in Inverness on Wednesday night.

The number of patients in hospital with swine flu has doubled in the past week to 652, of whom 53 are in intensive care. Visits to GPs and the number of calls to NHS Direct have also risen sharply.

Children under 14 are the hardest hit by the flu, and officials said that the NHS should plan for a worst-case scenario of up to half of all children developing the virus during a first pandemic wave.

The surge prompted officials to announce the launch of the National Pandemic Flu Service, as disclosed today in The Times. The service, which will include a phone-line and website for the diagnosis of symptoms and distribution of medication, will start next week.

The NHS preparation models were released as President Obama announced that $1.825 billion of funds has been allocated for emergency use to fight the pandemic in the US. The money will go to buy vaccine ingredients to help health officials plan for immunisation campaigns and rapid vaccine approval.

Sir Liam said there was now “exceptional influenza activity” across most of the country except Yorkshire and the Humber, although there are signs that the virus is now spreading faster across the north of England.

Tower Hamlets, in East London, is the area with the highest proportion of GP visits, with 759 consultations about flu-like illness per 100,000 of the population. Other badly affected areas of London include Hackney in the east, Islington in the north and Lewisham in the south. “Some of these will have the worried well among them,” Sir Liam said, adding that not all real cases would be swine flu.

Cherie Blair, the wife of the former Prime Minister, is among those with the virus and has had to pull out of a number of public engagements.



The planning model given to the NHS shows that deaths could range from 19,000 to 65,000 if 30 per cent of the population were to become infected. It says that the NHS should prepare for as much as 12 per cent of the workforce to be off sick. However, the document emphasises that its figures are based on a “reasonable worst-case scenario for planning purposes” and are not a prediction. There is a chance the spread of the virus could slow during the summer holidays, peaking in October after children go back to school, it says.Sir Liam said the aim of the new flu service was to alleviate pressure on hospitals and GP services, enabling them to look after the “most seriously ill”. The Government was trusting the public not to abuse the service.

People will be given a diagnosis over the telephone or can get one by following an internet questionnaire. A “flu friend” can then obtain the antiviral drug from one of the depots around the country using the reference number given. Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales have not yet set up such a service but could do so if the pressure on their health services continues to rise.

The Health Protection Agency said that its estimate of 55,000 new cases of swine flu in England in the past week includes people visiting GPs and those who are looking after themselves at home. Up to 85,000 people could be currently affected.

Sir Liam said the first vaccine deliveries next month would not be enough for everybody at high risk but sufficient would be available as winter approached.

Andy Burnham, Health Secretary, said: “The flu service will be able to quickly diagnose people with swine flu and give them the opportunity to get antivirals from local centres, meaning in turn that GPs’ time will be freed up enabling them to deal with other illnesses. I want the public to be reassured that we have been preparing for the possibility of a pandemic for a number of years and all that pre-planning is now paying dividends.”

There have been ten deaths so far in London. All had serious underlying conditions. In a bad seasonal flu year, there can be as many as 20,000 extra deaths in the winter linked with influenza.

The Department of Health defended its preparations for a pandemic amid accusations by some health personnel that it was providing conflicting advice to both doctors and patients. A health trust memo passed to The Times had said that guidance was “muddled and contradictory”.