In disappointing news for Republicans, Tommy Thompson and George Pataki have decided against running for Senate in Wisconsin and New York respectively. The latter appears to have turned down the challenge so he can lay the groundwork for a 2012 presidential bid—which shows that Pataki is so out-of-touch with reality that he did his party a favor by not running.
This brings down the number of pick-up possibilities for the GOP by two. Thompson and Pataki were ahead of Feingold and Gillibrand in hypothetical match-ups, so it shows an appetite exists for a challenger, but I wouldn’t count on winning these seats. This makes capturing the Senate a lot more difficult for the GOP, but a road does exist for that to happen.
The GOP must hold all of the 41 seats it currently holds. This is likely, although the races in Missouri and Ohio are pretty close. In addition to those, there are six seats that the Republicans seem likely to take over. These are in Nevada, Delaware, North Dakota, Arkansas, Colorado and Indiana.
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